WEEKLY ROUNDUP – THE BAH HUMBUG BUDGET, THE SILENT SPEAKER AND THE CONTENTIOUS COURTS

(Recap and analysis of the week in state government)

By KEITH LAING, THE NEWS SERVICE OF FLORIDA

www.newsserviceflorida.com

THE CAPITAL, TALLAHASSEE, Dec. 19, 2008………Gov. Charlie Crist did his best Santa Claus impersonation this week, spreading holiday cheer to state workers by unexpectedly giving most of them two paid vacation days during the holiday season.

The “Ho, Ho, Ho” governor’s goodwill may not last as long as the eggnog though.

The ever-expanding hole in the state budget – which estimates now put at $2.3 billion – is one present that lawmakers would like to avoid opening. But it has grown large enough for legislators to finally decide this week that they couldn’t afford to wait until March to plug it.

So the special session that months ago was deemed unnecessary by House Speaker Ray Sansom is now a reality. Sansom, R-Destin, and Senate President Jeff Atwater, R-Palm Beach Gardens, this week issued a call for a two-week special session starting Jan. 5 to address the budget shortfall, promising to make cuts while still providing essential services to the state’s residents.

For several months, Sansom has said that the budget holes could be plugged with trust fund transfers and other reserves and that no special session would be needed. But last week, Atwater said the state was risking an appearance of ambivalence and that its credit rating might suffer if lawmakers tried to wait until March to address the problem.

Crist and Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who has been calling for a special session since the fall, also said a January session would likely be necessary. Sansom relented.

Now that a special session has been called, lawmakers will have two weeks to figure out where to find money in the budget to make up the massive shortfall.

They got started this week, pulling out their scissors in committees.

No cuts were made, but if this week’s discussion was any indication, nothing may be totally safe.

Everything from libraries to college tuition assistance to medical care was measured for the chopping block. Lawmakers also continued to consider closing tax loopholes and eye trust funds like the Lawton Chiles Endowment fund.

The Chiles family, however, keeps on fighting about that, threatening to reassemble the legal eagles who won the original settlement from tobacco companies that keeps the trust fund’s coffers full (or whatever passes for full these days).

None of the options were popular, but they all may be necessary. Perhaps Rep. Rich Glorioso, R-Plant City, who chairs the House Transportation and Economic Development Appropriations Committee, best summed up the mood at the Capitol as Christmas decorations hung, saying “We may have to choose between cutting our right hand or our left.”

Feeling festive yet?

Neither are non-tribal gaming operators, who said this week that the deck is stacked against them as they compete with Seminole Tribe of Florida casinos. The state is losing out on hundreds of millions of dollars as a result, they claim.

Broward and Miami-Dade owners say they have been losing money to the tribe since it introduced Las Vegas-style gaming at its casinos around the state. More recently, the Seminoles have introduced blackjack at some casinos, another blow to non-Indian competitors who can’t follow suit.

South Florida gambling facilities said they alone could pump nearly $500 million a year into state coffers if allowed to compete head-to-head with tribal casinos. They’re urging lawmakers to drive a harder bargain with the tribe.

If not, they warned, the state risks losing long-time corporate citizens that cannot compete with the tribe as the situation stands. The compact, forged last year by Crist but invalidated by the courts, is already taking a toll, say members of the newly formed South Florida Gaming Coalition, who are decidedly not interested in playing with the hand they’ve been dealt.

SANSOM FLEES THE PRESS

As if the economy wasn’t bad enough for the House speaker, the criticism of his day job kept on keeping on this week. Sansom continued to be dogged by conflict-of-interest accusations for a vice-president job at Northwest Florida State College in Niceville.

The Florida Democratic Party has taken to calling Samson the “embattled” Speaker, even if most of the media has not. The party chairwoman called on the U.S. Attorney for North Florida to launch an investigation, though it was never made clear which laws the party thought were broken.

Democrat criticizes Republican House speaker. Dog bites man, right? But what if Republicans start doing it too?

We began to get the answer to that this week when former GOP Congressman Joe Scarborough – a fellow western Panhandler – compared Sansom to Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich – who truly is embattled – saying both men used their public office for personal gain.

Ouch! Being compared to a potty-mouth governor accused of attempting to sell a U.S. Senate seat to the highest bidder has got to sting.

Sansom, though, has responded by not responding. At all. To anything.

Sansom hasn’t held a press conference since the firestorm started and his office had no comment when the News Service asked about Scarborough’s criticism. A scheduled meeting this week between Sansom, Lawton Chiles, and other House Republican leaders was canceled hours before it was supposed to occur, with no explanation given.

Some in the blogosphere said that the meeting was canceled because Sansom did not want to face questions afterward, but they couldn’t prove it.

But who would have thought we would have had a speechless speaker?

COURTING CONTENTION

As everyone else began winding down for the holidays this week, the state’s courts heated up, like the temperature in Tallahassee.

Following a split vote by the Florida Supreme Court, a proposed constitutional amendment limiting comprehensive plan amendments could face Florida voters in 2010. It’s the second petition dealing with the issue.

The Florida Supreme Court narrowly approved ballot language offered by Orlando-based Floridians for Smarter Growth that would require a referendum on local comprehensive plan amendments, but only if at least 10 percent of voters request such action.

The business-backed group was formed to counter another initiative backed by Florida Hometown Democracy that would require voters to approve all comprehensive plans and plan amendments.

Smarter Growth executive director Ryan Houck told the News Service this week that the group must now decide whether to gather the additional 250,000 verified signatures needed to put the issue before voters.

That will depend in large measure on what happens within Hometown Democracy Florida, which is now shooting for 2010 after missing a deadline earlier this year to put their issue before voters in November.

The Smarter Growth proposal set off a flurry of debate among justices, with three jurists saying the ballot summary misleads voters by implying the proposal gives them the right to vote on amendments when it gives them only a limited opportunity to do so.

There was also a lot of talk this week about who would be on Florida’s judicial benches. The Supreme Court suspended Palm Beach County Judge-elect William Abramson from practicing law for 91 days and former top Jeb Bush aide Frank Jimenez was added to a list of candidates to fill a void on the high court, a concession to Gov. Crist, who wants more diversity in Florida courts.

STORY OF THE WEEK: The elephants (and donkeys) in the room finally spoke up: the much-talked about special session to plug a $2.3 billion hole in the state budget was scheduled for Jan. 5-16. Lawmakers won’t wait that long to start thinking about what to cut though. That began in earnest this week.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK: “We’re past the fat. We’re in the gristle and the bone,” former Senate President Jim King, after suggesting lawmakers look at potential reserves in the program that allows parents to pay for future college tuition at today’s prices as a way to fill a gap in the state budget.

–END–
12/19/2008

PUSH STARTS TO REMOVE CAP ON AFFORDABLE HOUSING SPENDING

By KEITH LAING, THE NEWS SERVICE OF FLORIDA

www.newsserviceflorida.com

THE CAPITAL, TALLAHASSEE, Dec. 17, 2008………As lawmakers consider tapping various trust funds in their search for ways to plug a $2.3 billion hole in the state budget, one representative and many advocates for affordable housing want to put an end to their ability to dig into one.

Rep. Ron Saunders, D-Key West, wants the Legislature to remove a cap on expenditures from the Sadowski Trust Fund, which uses money collected from a dedicated tax on purchase documents for commercial and residential properties to fund affordable housing projects. The state receives $2 from every residential transaction and $4 from every commercial ownership change.

In 2006, the Legislature put a cap on spending from the fund, named for former legislator and Community Affairs Secretary William Sadowski, at $243 million.

The cap allows the state to move any money that comes in above that amount to other places in the budget. Saunders has filed a measure (HB 25) for the upcoming session that would eliminate the cap, as he has done the past two years, saying the state should “keep its word” and spend the money on what it was collected for.

“This was a promise we made,” Saunders said. “We said that money was going to be used for affordable housing.”

Saunders, who is on his second tour in the House, having been elected in 2006 after serving from 1986 to 1994, would know about the trust fund’s original purpose. He was one of the original sponsors of the bill that created the fund in 1992.

“It worked well until the people I served with were term-limited,” he said. “The new people who came in saw a pile of money.”

The pile of money in the Sadowski Trust Fund is not as big as it used to be though, Saunders said. With the Florida housing market plummeting, the state isn’t collecting as much from processing property sales as it used to.

Collections for the Sadowski Trust Fund are not forecast to even reach the $243 million cap level this year or next year.

But that makes now a good time to lift the cap, Saunders said.

“Let’s do it now before our economy recovers (and collections increase again),” he said.

Saunders said he will not support any of the new fees being floating as potential deficit stopgaps, like a proposed cigarette tax, until full funding of the Sadowski Trust Fund is restored.

“I’m not going to vote for any new taxes or fees until I know where it is going,” he said. “If we’re going to raise taxes or fees, people need to know where their money is going.”

Otherwise, Saunders said, money collected by the state goes “into the big black hole that is general revenue.”

Lifting the Sadowski Trust Fund cap is supported by several housing organizations that came together to form a Sadowski Coalition to support its initial passage. The group is now committed to reinstating full funding.

Jaimie Ross, affordable housing director of 1,000 Friends of Florida, a non-profit smart growth advocacy group, agreed. 1,000 Friends of Florida is one of 24 organizations that form the Sadowski Work Force Housing Coalition. Other members including the Florida Homebuilders Association, the Florida Association of Realtors and the Florida League of Cities.

“As far as I can tell, there is no constituency for keeping the cap,” Ross said. “Everyone whole-heartedly supports removing it.”

“Lifting the cap will have no fiscal impact on the state of the Florida,” she said. “What we’ve always been told is, ‘We need the money,’ but lifting the cap this year won’t cost the state any money.”

Ross also said that lifting the lid on spending Sadowski money would restore the integrity of the trust fund and provide a reservoir of money to put back into the economy once it starts recovering.

Edie Ousley, communications director of the Florida Homebuilders Association, agreed.

“It’s more important now than ever (that the cap be lifted) so we can provide more people with down payment assistance,” she said. “Doing so will help stimulate the economy. There’s a lot of (homes) out there. Putting people in housing will generate dollars at the local level and for the state.”

“As we’re facing a special session to make cuts (to the budget), anything that can be done with dollars that already exist is a win-win for the state,” Ousley said.

Dee Carper, a lobbyist for the Florida League of Cities, which has made removing the cap one of its priorities this year, said it would show the state was as committed to solving the housing crunch as the federal government.

“When you have this federal push to eliminate foreclosures and send down stimulus (money), the state should get on board too,” she said.

Carper added that the Sadowski fund not only helps build new homes, but it also finances new rental properties, which are in higher demand as people lose their homes.

“It goes hand-in-hand,” she said. When people get into financial trouble, maybe because of the sub-prime loan crisis, their need for housing doesn’t end she said. “That makes the demand for multiple family housing higher. The programs that are funded by the Sadowski Trust Fund go a long way to meet multiple needs.”

–END–
12/17/2008

OBSERVERS: ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE MAY BE SYMBOLIC, BUT IT’S HISTORIC

By KEITH LAING, THE NEWS SERVICE OF FLORIDA

www.newsserviceflorida.com

THE CAPITAL, TALLAHASSEE, Dec. 15, 2008………….In a largely ceremonial proceeding that was at times celebratory, Florida’s 27 electoral votes officially went to Barack Obama Monday.

Electors selected by the party convened in the Senate chamber to make the results of the Nov. 4 election official. Many of them wore buttons that said “Obama-Biden: Mission Accomplished,” a nod to both the president-elect’s fierce campaign to wrest the state from Republican hands, where it had been since 1996, and also to one of outgoing President George W. Bush’s most infamous utterances about the Iraq War.

Neither the president nor the war was particularly popular with the electors who gathered Monday to cast Florida’s electoral votes for Obama, but even they could not dampen the mood inside the Senate.

Florida’s electoral college vote has bedeviled Democrats before and this year played a critical role in making Obama the nation’s first African-American president. The history of the moment was not lost on many of the state’s top Democrats as the official votes were being counted.

“To be right here in Florida, a former Confederate state, helping to participate in electing our first African-American president is amazing,” Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the highest ranking Democrat in the state, said. “There’s a lot of symbolism there. It says a lot about how far our country has come.”

Sink added that backgrounds of the electors also made a statement.

“As I was in the gallery looking down upon the 27 electors, (I saw) just the incredible diversity there,” she said. “Seeing those 27 people, it was a picture of what Florida is.”

The unusually high number of Democrats on the Senate floor was not lost on Sink, either. Only 14 of the 40 current Senators are members of the party.

“We haven’t had so many Democrats in the Senate chamber in how long?,” Sink asked rhetorically.

Rep. Franklin Sands, D-Weston, hailed Monday’s ceremonial vote as an “amazing, historic thing.”

“It’s certainly a great day to be a Democrat in Florida,” he said. “We’re looking forward to very exciting things in Washington.”

Sen. Frederica Wilson, D-Miami, brought a group of 110 high school students from her district to be a part of it. The group was composed of African-American boys for whom Wilson said there are new possibilities after Obama’s victory.

“They feel that they can be the president,” Wilson said. “We always say to them, you can be anything you want to be. All you have to do is stay in school, study hard, you can even be president of the United States. Now it’s a reality. They see that they can be president of the United States, and maybe one of them will. They want to be somebody, and they know that they can be somebody.”

There was plenty of history Monday, but there was not much drama. All of the electors who cast votes previously pledged to support the Democratic ticket, so the victory by Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden was unanimous. Had Arizona Sen. John McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin pulled out a Sunshine State victory, a separate slate of Republican electors would have been sent to Tallahassee.

The votes cast will be certified by Secretary of State Kurt Browning, who presided over Monday’s proceedings, and counted by the incoming U.S. Congress Jan. 6.

–END–
12/15/2008

WEEKLY ROUNDUP – COME TEST THE WATERS! EVERYBODY’S DOING IT!

(Recap and analysis of the week in state government)

By KEITH LAING, THE NEWS SERVICE OF FLORIDA

www.newsserviceflorida.com

THE CAPITAL, TALLAHASSEE, Dec. 5, 2008……….With the riveting presidential race fading into a dull transition, political junkies in Florida were probably going through withdrawal until U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez announced surprisingly this week that he would not seek re-election.

Then people began testing the waters like they were on vacation on South Beach.

Though his term is not up for another two years, Martinez’s announcement unofficially kicked off a race that was already shaping up to be among the nation’s most hotly contested. The Florida political scene devolved into a series of “if, then” propositions as candidates and their most ardent supporters began thinking they too could be Florida’s next Senator.

Everybody in the political world spent this week trying to figure out who might run for Martinez’s seat, and who might run for the seats those who do will vacate.

The dominoes they were waiting on to fall represent a Who’s Who of Florida politics. What if Jeb Bush ran?, the capital city wondered. Would fatigue from his brother’s outgoing administration that helped turned Florida blue in this year’s presidential race doom a third statewide victory for the former governor?

How about former House Speaker Marco Rubio or Senate President Jeff Atwater, Tallahassee asked? The charismatic former House leader from Miami might be appealing because of his youth, geographic base and Hispanic heritage, the conventional wisdom quickly surmised. Atwater demonstrated his fundraising prowess this year by culling more than $2 million for his re-election bid and could likely raise the necessary money a statewide run would require, it was said this week.

Speaking of money, the Capitol crowd commented that you have to look at those who have run statewide or for federal office before, because financing a statewide run is no picnic. Members of the Florida Congressional delegation whose names surfaced around Tallahassee this week include: Adam Putnam of Bartow, Ginny Brown-Waite of Brooksville, Connie Mack of Fort Myers, and Miami Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Some potential senators even began floating the idea of them running themselves, including Attorney General Bill McCollum, U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd, and former state House Speaker Allan Bense. McCollum put a statement out two hours and 45 minutes after Martinez announced his decision not to run, saying he “would seriously consider” the senate race.

Rubio e-mailed friends on the social networking site Facebook to let them know that someone created a group called “Rubio for Senate in 2010.” In his message, Rubio pointed out he didn’t create the site, but did want people to know it was out there. Wonder why?

Reporters also stumbled across a MarcoRubio2010 Youtube site this week. Coincidence? Rubio is a big fan of Jeb Bush, though, and if Bush were in, he’d likely step aside and be a big Jeb supporter.

Democrats had already begun eying the seat before Martinez’s announcement, buoyed by poll numbers for the incumbent that resembled winter nighttime temperatures. The press began reporting before Martinez’s announcement that the biggest Democratic domino out there, CFO Alex Sink, would not run for governor or senator in 2010.

Instead, the reports said, the highest ranking and most popular Democratic officeholder in the state would run for re-election to avoid challenging Gov. Charlie Crist and then run to replace him when he is term-limited in 2014.

By week’s end though, Sink was walking back reports that she wasn’t interested in the senate, saying through a spokesman that she wasn’t yet ready to speak about her future.

As a whole, Democrats in Florida were already watching to see which dominoes fell before Martinez’s announcement, but that’s because they have a Cabinet to fill. The most immediate concern of the Democratic Party’s movers and shakers is whether anyone will be moving to Washington as appointments of President-elect Barack Obama.

Among the Democrats waiting to see where the chips fall may be state Sen. Dave Aronberg, who could run for Congress if Rep. Robert Wexler goes to the administration, or attorney general if McCollum runs for Senate. State Sen. Dan Gelber, D-Miami Beach and former state Sen. Rod Smith enjoyed heightened attention this week too.

And the election won’t take place for two years! Imagine how long the list could be next week.

SANSOM STILL STEPPING IN IT

While much of Tallahassee was talking about possible future officeholders, a current lawmaker faced a growing drumbeat of criticism this week over his day job.

Last month, officials at Northwest Florida State College in Niceville announced Sansom would become a vice president. But citing a potential conflict of interest, Florida’s top Democratic Party official and a government watchdog called this week for him to quit the new $110,000-a-year job or resign his leadership post.

They were joined by several newspaper editorial boards that wrote opinion pieces calling on Sansom to reconsider his decision. One of those editorials came from the Northwest Florida Daily News, Sansom’s hometown newspaper, which wrote that the new speaker “deserves every bit of grief he’s getting.”

As lead House budget negotiator last year, Sansom, R-Destin, helped shepherd through a $24.5 million construction project for the college despite nearly $6 billion in budget cuts elsewhere. The college and Sansom point out that he’s not being paid by money that comes from the state budget, but by another pot of money.

Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen Thurman said Wednesday that Sansom should choose which post he wants to hold.

“The appearance of impropriety is too great for Ray Sansom to as remain speaker and keep his job with the Northwest Florida State College,” Thurman said. Common Cause Florida also said the appointment was inappropriate.

Sansom called the request a politically-motivated distraction from the financial issues that confront the state.

Either that, or Sansom is a hit dog hollering.

RENEWING THE RENEWABLE ENERGY DEBATE

Those not worrying about replacing Mel Martinez or whether Ray Sansom has a conflict of interest may have been talking about energy this week. When gas prices skyrocketed to $4 per gallon this summer, Florida got engaged in an energetic debate about renewable energy.

Should we drill for oil off the Florida coast? How many miles per gallon should our cars get? And how soon should our power companies begin producing alternative energy?

All those issues were back on the table this week as the Public Service and Environmental Regulation commissions took them up again. After nearly six hours of testimony and debate, the ERC approved a proposal to boost state requirements to match car emissions standards enforced in California since the 1990s. In doing so, they recommended that the Legislature make Florida’s auto emission requirements among the nation’s toughest.

Under the stricter rules, emissions from new cars sold or leased in Florida would be cut by nearly 25 percent in the next four years and 30 percent by 2016. If approved by the Legislature, Florida would be the 13th state to voluntarily adopt automobile emission standards that are stricter than the existing federal requirements.

Environmentalists lauded the commission vote but conceded the package will face stiff political opposition from agricultural and automobile representatives when the issue moves to the Legislature next year.

Supporters of an aggressive standard for power companies cheered this week too. A study presented Wednesday to the PSC said Florida’s utilities could feasibly increase the amount of renewable energy they produce by 20 percent by the year 2020, as called for by Crist and environmental groups. Current plans call for not meeting that increase until 2041. The PSC could make a final decision on that next year.

A study by Navigant Consulting for the PSC was released this week and found that production increases in solar, wind and biomass energies were technologically possible in the shortened time frame favored by Crist and the environmental lobby.

Offshore oil drilling was also being discussed this week, though at nowhere near the fever pitch produced this summer by empty gas stations and expensive gallons. But a few legislators were discussing proposals from the Florida Association of Convention and Visitors Bureaus to drill 30 miles offshore, as long as doing so doesn’t interfere with military operations in the Panhandle.

The association spun its decision, reached after an October summit with oil and gas industry officials and environmentalists, as a compromise, but it was hard not see it as a stunning reversal from an industry that has in the past stood firm against any drilling near Florida’s beaches.

“Our industry had to balance the need for transportation for visitors to get to Florida with the need to protect our natural beauty,” executive director Robert Skrob said this week.

The visitors bureaus plan to present their recommendations to the Legislature next year, with the hopes of getting a resolution calling on Congress to reverse course on Gulf Coast drilling.

That lengthy food chain led one lawmaker, Niceville Republican Don Gaetz, to surmise that the opinion of the Legislature on offshore drilling doesn’t really matter that much.

“The opinion of the Florida Legislature about offshore drilling is about as relevant as the opinion of the Lutherans about the selection of the next Pope,” Gaetz quipped. “They’re not going to ask us.”

Energy prices have been one of the few good economic stories, and this week the state’s largest electric utility, Florida Power & Light, got the green light to lower customers’ bills a bit in January, passing on its lower costs for fuel.

Unfortunately, stock prices are down too – and there was a sobering number from the State Board of Administration this week.: the state pension fund’s value has shrunk by more than $40 billion since last year. The losses are on paper right now – and many won’t be realized unless Florida sells. But the pension fund has dropped below $100 billion in value after being at nearly $140 billion this time last year.

STORY OF THE WEEK: U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez is calling it a career, and everybody who’s ever been elected to anything in Florida began looking in the mirror and trying out the title senator.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK: “I imagine with this announcement, the most looked up thing on the Internet will be the testing of the waters rules as people decide if this is something they really want to do. The busiest people in the world are probably at the (Federal Elections Commission),” former Republican Party of Florida executive director David Johnson summing up possible candidates thinking of trying to replace Martinez.

–END–
12/5/2008

WHOA, DOMINOES! NAMES FLYING AS 2010 SENATE RACE SUDDENLY INVOLVES OPEN SEAT

By KEITH LAING, THE NEWS SERVICE OF FLORIDA

www.newsserviceflorida.com

THE CAPITAL, TALLAHASSEE, Dec. 2, 2008…….The 2010 election for the Senate seat in Florida that will be up for grabs that year was already shaping up to be among the nation’s most hotly contested races, and with the surprisingly early announcement Tuesday that Republican Sen. Mel Martinez won’t be in it, casting a longing eye toward the seat quickly became a bi-partisan activity.

Several names from Florida’s political present and past immediately surfaced as possible candidates – with a couple even admitting to being interested, getting their names out as “possible candidates.” Among those were two Republicans, Attorney General Bill McCollum and former state House Speaker Allan Bense.

“I imagine with this announcement, the most looked up thing on the Internet will be the testing of the waters rules as people decide if this is something they really want to do,” former Republican Party of Florida executive director David Johnson told the News Service. “The busiest people in the world are probably at the (Federal Elections Commission).”

The name most often mentioned as a Democratic challenger to Martinez, state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, had her political ambitions thrown for a loop with the announcement. News Web site Politico had just reported she wasn’t interested in challenging him when he announced he wouldn’t be running, leaving her once again a possible candidate.

On the GOP side, Johnson said that the personal and financial commitment required to mount a credible statewide campaign would likely winnow the field of potential challengers fairly quickly. Former statewide candidates and current federal officeholders, he said, would be the Republicans most likely to have the national connections and fundraising base to survive a wide-open primary.

“You have to look first at the people who’ve done this before,” he said.

Among them: McCollum, who was the Republican nominee for Senate in the 2002 race against Democrat Bill Nelson. Shortly after Martinez’s announcement, McCollum said publicly that he would begin considering running for the seat.

“I have been asked today whether this announcement will have any effect on my plans for the future,” McCollum said in a statement released by his office Tuesday, just a short time after the Martinez story broke. “At this point, my plan is – at the appropriate time – to announce my intention to seek re-election as Florida’s Attorney General. However, given today’s development, I will seriously consider and discuss with my family a race for this U.S. Senate seat, and we will share our decision at a later date.”

Other Republicans mentioned as worth watching include four members of Congress: Adam Putnam of Bartow, Ginny Brown-Waite of Brooksville, Connie Mack of Fort Myers, and Miami Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Johnson added that several statewide figures could also throw their hats into the ring. Among them are Senate President Jeff Atwater, who demonstrated his fundraising prowess this year by culling more than $2 million for his re-election bid, and charismatic former House speaker Marco Rubio of Miami.

Rubio might be particularly appealing because of his heritage, Johnson said. Republicans traditionally have done well among Hispanic voters, though the party lost them this year to President-elect Barack Obama nationally and in Florida.

“(Republicans) are losing someone who was one of the highest elected Hispanics in the country,” Johnson said. “When you look at Hispanics, Rubio pops to mind immediately. He’s young, telegenic and coming off a successful term as speaker.”

Rubio was also identified as a potentially strong candidate for the GOP by another former Republican Party of Florida chairman, Al Cardenas.

Cardenas said the time may be ripe for the party to tap into a pool of talented young Republicans that includes Rubio, Putnam, Mack and state Rep. Dean Cannon.

“There are a number of very qualified potential candidates,” Cardenas said.

However, Johnson cautioned that with word of Martinez’s decision to forgo re-election just spreading Monday, it was too early to tell which if any of the state’s prominent Republicans would ultimately run.

One name that quickly came up was that of former Gov. Jeb Bush.

Through a spokeswoman, Bush sidestepped the question of whether he’d run.

“Gov. Bush has not given serious consideration to running for the U.S. Senate, or any other office at this point,” said the spokeswoman, Kristy Campbell.

She added that he was staying involved in education issues, but wasn’t fully out of party politics. “Gov. Bush hopes to play a constructive role in the future of the party, advocating ideas and policies to get the conservative cause back on track,” Campbell said.

Johnson said there may be some candidates who were not eyeing a run but may consider it now that the seat will be vacant.

That logic could also apply to Democrats.

Prior to Martinez’s announcement Monday, Politico.com reported that Sink had decided not to challenge Martinez or Gov. Charlie Crist, who will also be up for re-election in 2010. Instead, Sink decided over the Thanksgiving holiday to run for re-election to the CFO post in 2010 and consider pursuing higher office at a later date, Politico said.

A statewide poll conducted last month by Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University’s polling institute surveyed prominent state Democrats who may consider statewide runs in 2010 and showed Sink would have to be considered the front-runner for the Democratic nomination should she seek it. The poll measured support for Sink and U.S. Reps. Allen Boyd and Kendrick Meek and state Sen. Dan Gelber and found only Sink topping 15 percent approval. The CFO garnered support from 35 percent of respondents in the poll.

Sink did not immediately respond to requests for comment from the News Service Monday.

Johnson said Republicans and Democrats will be watching to see what Sink does.

“That’s going to be a big domino for a lot of folks,” Johnson said.

He added that whoever emerges as the Republican candidate, Martinez’s seat will be important for the party to hold on to on the heels of losing at least 13 Senate seats in the last two election cycles.

They will be helped both by who will be on the ballot in 2010 and who won’t, Johnson said.

“The good news for Republicans is that Obama is not on the ballot and Charlie (Crist) will be,” he said. “That should help.”

Many Democrats may be waiting until an Obama cabinet is complete before deciding what they’ll do, said former state Senate Minority Leader Steve Geller.

“I think the situation will be much more clear in another month or six weeks,” he said.

Among the Democrats waiting to see where the chips fall may be state Sen. Dave Aronberg, Geller said.

Aronberg , D-Greenacres, could conceivably run for Delray Beach U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler’s seat if Wexler ends up in the Obama administration, Geller said, adding that Aronberg could also emerge as a candidate for attorney general if McCollum runs for Senate.

State Sen. Gelber could be in a similar position, Geller added. Gelber, a former federal prosecutor who spent the last eight years in the House, could end up in Obama’s Justice Department, which would preclude a run for the Senate.

Other potential Democratic candidates could include former state Sen. Rod Smith, who ran unsuccessfully for the party’s gubernatorial nomination in 2006, and Boyd.

Smith is “well-liked and well-respected and would be a strong candidate,” Geller said. However, Boyd – a conservative Democrat, might have trouble appealing to the Democratic base, he said. If he did win the nomination though, Boyd would be formidable, Geller said.

“Boyd might have a little bit of a problem getting out of the primary, but he would be strong general election candidate,” Geller said. “He could certainly get a lot of conservative voters who normally vote for Republicans.”

The number of potential candidates on both sides of the aisle shows clearly that the 2010 Florida Senate race will be one of the biggest on the national radar.

But Geller said the amount of energy Democrats invest in the race will not be changed by Martinez’s decision not to seek a second term.

“I think he was seen as an exceptionally weak candidate,” he said. “That seat was going to be hotly contested (before Martinez’s announcement), and it’s going to hotly contested now.”

–END–
12/2/2008