(Recap and analysis of the week in state government)
By KEITH LAING, THE NEWS SERVICE OF FLORIDA
www.newsserviceflorida.com
THE CAPITAL, TALLAHASSEE, Nov. 14, 2008…….The Legislature may not be in session yet, but this week, for the 35 new representatives who managed to get themselves elected this year, class certainly was.
With the glitz and glamour of the campaigns behind them, newly elected lawmakers got down to business. First on their agenda though, was learning where the bathroom is. With that essential piece of business taken care, the freshmen representatives got the Capitol version of “Governing for DUMMIES” this week.
The House newbies learned to file bills, had official photos taken for the clerk’s manual, heard from Capitol veterans and introduced themselves to each other.
For the legislators-in-waiting, the whole hand-holding affair was probably a world away from the campaign they just won, when they ran the show. But the new lawmakers can be forgiven if their introduction to the seniority-laden Legislature felt a little like a college orientation. Incoming speaker Ray Sansom, R-Destin, told them that feeling was normal as he welcomed them to the backbench.
“You have good ideas, but (it may seem) nobody’s paying attention to them,” Sansom warned. “There comes a time in your freshman year, you really want to know, ‘Should I even be here? Is anyone even listening?’ Don’t get frustrated.”
After hearing from Sansom this week that it was normal for them to be feeling like 18-year-old college freshmen in a city that teems with them, the new legislators also learned that it was not OK to act like 18-year-old college freshmen. The new members got lessons on decorum, protocol, and even were cautioned by Sansom against getting too acquainted with Tallahassee’s night life choices. Like freshmen being watched by residence hall assistants, the freshmen lawmakers may be being watched by journalists, Sansom told them.
They also attended orientation sessions on major issues, from the budget to property taxes, to health care to education.
The House’s freshmen 35 were also briefed on the open meetings laws, ethics laws, and various reporting requirements, such as what they must disclose about their personal finances. There were also sessions planned on working with the press and lobbyists.
But while they spent three days this week learning the Capitol ropes, the new members won’t get their office space assignments, or parking spaces, until next month. Until then, they will work – and park – where the member they succeeded did. Sansom told the members he’d meet with them about committee assignments, and hoped to make those assignments by mid-December
HOW THEY GOT HERE
The freshman representatives are joining a House that looks strikingly like it did before Nov. 4.
Legislative Democrats spent this week trying to figure out how they managed to have such a lackluster Election Day while Democrat Barack Obama swept into the White House with Florida’s help.
They had one plausible idea: New, young voters, excited about the Obama candidacy, simply didn’t vote for Democrats down the ticket. That was likely true, an analysis of voting patterns by The News Service of Florida this week showed. In the 10 Florida counties where Obama did the best, he got 22.6 percent more votes than Democratic state House candidates.
But the analysis identified a potential flaw in the Democrats’ “get your own coattails” argument. People also appeared to have gone out and voted for John McCain and left in about the same percentages. In the 10 counties where McCain won by the largest margins, 22.2 percent failed to vote for the Republican legislative candidate in their area.
There was some evidence the Obama effect hurt Democrats most in the counties where they typically do well. In counties like Miami-Dade and Broward counties, there was more Democratic drop off than Republican drop off. But overall, the vote fall-off did not have a D or an R beside it.
Spending money to get into office was also a bi-partisan phenomenon. Candidates from both parties raised and spent millions to get into office. In fact, many of the state’s top campaign fundraisers have more money left in their accounts than their opponents spent. The top 10 House fund raisers raised $4.7 million and spent $3.9 million to usher themselves into office. Meanwhile, successful Senate candidates spent $7.5 million to defeat opponents, some of whom offered only token resistance.
WHAT THEY’RE FACING
Now that the new legislators are here in Tallahassee, they may want to get comfortable because the freshmen may be joined by their veteran colleagues much sooner than anticipated. Concerns mounted this week over the state’s fiscal condition and the state’s chief financial officer renewed her call for a special session.
State officials have estimated that they could be facing more than a $1 billion hole in the 2008-2009 state budget and revenue estimators are scheduled to meet next Friday to release the latest state numbers on how much money is coming in to the state’s checkbook.
That’s why Sink said lawmakers need to call a special session to tackle the budget hole now instead of waiting until the spring session to figure out a way to deal with the expected shortfall, while simultaneously planning for the following year’s budget.
“You can’t look at these numbers and not be alarmed,” she said.
Even Sansom, who has consistently said a special session would not be necessary, hedged, if only a bit. Sansom said he doesn’t believe there’s an immediate need for a special session, but acknowledged that could change if revenue estimates are dramatically lower when lawmakers receive them later this month.
“On the 21st of November, we’ll see what might be necessary. We’ll just make decisions from there,” Sansom said. “I’m not hitting a panic button.”
It may be time to reach for the panic button on the housing market, however. Florida’s housing woes continued into October as foreclosures sped at a pace nearly double that of a year ago and four Florida cities remained in a dubious “Top 10″ list of most distressed areas, a national group reported this week. One out of every 157 housing units in Florida received a foreclosure filing in October, up 13 percent from September and 80 percent higher than October 2007, according to RealtyTrac, which tabulates foreclosures nationwide.
IT’S NEVER TOO EARLY TO HIT THE GROUND RUNNING
Despite the clear need for everybody to actually do some governing, some in the state were already thinking about the next election this week. Emboldened by President-elect Obama’s victory in Florida, the first by Democrat in 12 years, Democrats in Florida are already beginning to ponder if they can unseat Gov. Charlie Crist and U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez in two years.
A website has already popped up urging Chief Financial Officer Sink to make a bid for the governor’s mansion in 2010.
“She is undeniably one of the Florida Democratic Party’s rising stars,” the website DraftAlex.com says of Sink, who, along with U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson is one of only two Democratic officeholders elected statewide.
However, while Obama’s optimism may have won the day for Democrats this year, when it comes to Florida’s 2010 races, hope may be fleeting for the Dems. Several post-postmortems on Republican presidential nominee John McCain’s failed bid for the White House say that the Arizona senator lost Florida the day he chose not to tap Crist as his running mate.
Crist, who was speculated to be a finalist for the spot on the Republican ticket and is widely credited with McCain’s win in the Florida Republican primary, ran four points higher in 2006 than McCain did against Obama. The self-proclaimed “people governor’s” approval ratings have reached as high as 60 percent.
That’s why some have argued that Sink – or any other Democrat eying a statewide run – would be better off targeting Sen. Mel Martinez in 2010 than Crist.
A recent statewide poll of officeholder’s approval ratings, conducted by Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University, showed Martinez at 37 percent. That’s not quite a bad as outgoing President George W. Bush’s numbers, but incumbents below 50 percent approval are usually regarded as vulnerable.
If you think it’s too early for 2010 talk, you’re going to love what went on in Miami this week. There, Republicans held what basically amounted to the first cattle-call of the 2012 presidential race: the Republican Governor’s Association annual meeting. It’s only a week removed from the 2008 election, and Obama hasn’t even been inaugurated yet, but more importantly for Republicans still smarting from losing the White House they’ve held for two terms, it’s only 3 years and 2 months until the next Iowa caucus.
Several names often tossed around as future leaders of the party, including, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Florida’s own Crist were spotted in Miami this week, and they weren’t there for the tan. Crist, in particular, was making the case for moderation in the national Republican party, arguing that the party should follow his bi-partisan example in the Sunshine State.
The “people’s governor” certainly drew a crowd in his own right, but there was no bigger star in Florida this week than Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. The former vice-presidential nominee made her return to the continental U.S. with her trip to Miami this week, and she came back with a bang. Palin, who had been reticent to speak to the media during the campaign, talked to anyone who had a microphone this week, conducting several national interviews from Miami. Palin also held a press conference and delivered a speech entitled “Looking to the Future,” which clearly includes her leading the party in four years if she has her way.
STORY OF THE WEEK: At long last, the campaign is over. Now the real work begins. But first, someone please explain why some elevators go to the 22nd floor and some don’t. And why in the world are there two Capitols?
QUOTE OF THE WEEK: “Tallahassee is not your home. It is a place you come and do business for people in the state of Florida……Don’t get disconnected from your district, don’t get disconnected from the people that sent you here,” incoming House Speaker Ray Sansom to the 35 freshmen legislators who undoubtedly would like to get as comfy in the Capital as can be for as long as voters will have them.
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11/14/2008