http://www.atlantatribune.com/
by Keith Laing, Atlanta Tribune: The Magazine
April 2008
In Atlanta and throughout the country, much has been made of this presidential campaign season, which has seen the first truly viable woman, African-American and, until recently, Mormon candidates competing for the highest office in the land. Come January 2009, the person occupying the oval office could be quite unlike more than 200 years of predecessors.
And around the time of the next presidential inauguration in Washington, the race to succeed outgoing Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin will just be heating up. Franklin, the latest in an unbroken nearly four-decade lineage of black mayors, will be barred from seeking office again by term limits, and the contest to replace her will be wide open. But with the metro area suffocating from traffic congestion and suburbanites relocating within city limits in order to reduce their commutes, Atlanta’s voting population looks and feels a lot different than it did when Franklin was elected in 2001 – not to mention when Maynard Jackson became the city’s first black mayor in 1974.
According to census estimates, the city of Atlanta has gained more than 50,000 residents since the year 2000. That year, 33 percent of the city’s population described themselves as “white.’ Now, 37 percent do. Atlanta’s white population has increased by almost 30,000 people since 1980, the year Jackson’s glass ceiling shattering first administration ended and he was succeeded by protégé Andrew Young.
The shift in Atlanta’s demographics has been noticeable enough for observers to wonder if the most reliable Democratic area in Georgia, and one of the centers of the black political universe, could sooner – rather than later – be led by a white mayor for the first time in a generation. Popular radio and television personality Clark Howard has already hinted at having an interest in the city’s top slot, though he has not said for sure whether that interest will translate into a 2009 campaign.
According to Emory University political science professor Andra Gillespie, the time could be right for a successful, white mayoral candidate.
“It very well could [happen]…if not this election, than by the time the next mayor is elected if the trend continues. The changing demographics might make it attractive for members of other groups to aspire to be mayor in ways it wouldn’t have 20 years ago,” she says.
Electing a white mayor in a city where whites are still outnumbered almost two-to-one may seem unlikely, but it could be made easier by the likely large number of black candidates and the fact that the race is non-partisan, Gillespie portends. Black voters have been overwhelming Democratic since the Civil Rights Era.
“If the question is whether multiple black candidates might make it possible for a white winner, we’ve see examples in Congress where it happens and where it doesn’t,” explains Gillespie. “It is strategically logical that it is possible to split the African-American vote, but there are exceptions to the rule.”
In those cases, says Gillespie, one black candidate consolidates the African-American vote as a base and then broadens his or her appeal. “A black candidate [should] get as many black voters as possible while reaching out to white voters,” she continues. “If they can build that kind of coalition, they can be competitive, perhaps even victorious.”
Of course, that is exactly how Franklin, as well as Jackson, Young and Bill Campbell, charted their courses to City Hall. Still, Gillespie cautions against making predictions for an election that is a year and a half away.
“People are pre-occupied with the presidential election. This time next year will be a different story, but right now, it’s anybody’s election.”
Gillespie says the candidates eyeing the race at this early stage are good fits for the job and it is natural for a race to replace an outgoing incumbent to attract thoroughbred candidates.
“The quality pool for an open seat is always high – that’s the time for anyone with an interest to run. It’s much harder to beat an incumbent than to run for an open seat.”
Among the crop hoping to be Atlanta’s next black mayor, only Atlanta City Council President Lisa Borders has formally announced her intent to seek the office. Borders was elected to office in a 2004 special election to replace former council President Cathy Woolard, who vacated the seat to run for Congress. She then won a term of her own in 2005.
In those campaigns, she promised to deliver “clean water, clean neighborhoods and clean government” on behalf of the Atlanta City Council. Now, she wants to make those changes to City Hall. Last year, Borders notified the city clerk that she would begin taking financial contributions for a mayoral run.
Borders decided to get an early start on the 2009 race because she is ready to get to work for Atlanta. “I’m getting into something I have wanted to do my entire life,” she says. “I wanted to demonstrate that this is something I’m not just interested in, but something I’m committed to.”
Borders adds that being one of the earliest announced candidates in the race gives her a greater opportunity to listen to voters, even those who may be more focused on the ongoing national election.
“At the very minimum, people want you to listen to them, not talk to them,” asserts the council president. “Whether it is public safety because your car got broken into or trash pick-up, [voters] want you to hear them. The way I get people to focus [on the race] is by listening twice as much as I talk and getting people engaged on personal issues before soliciting their support on broader issues.”
In addition to her head start, Borders believes her executive experience will separate her from the rest of the forming field. As council president, Borders is essentially Atlanta’s deputy mayor. She presides over city council meetings, appoints committee chairs and members for the council and works with the city’s executive branch of government, headed by the mayor.
Borders views Atlanta’s shifting demographics as an affirmation of the city’s quality of life instead of as a potential electoral roadblock. “Atlanta is enjoying folks coming from all over the [metro area] and all over the world,” she says. “It’s clear from my 2004 race that voters choose competence over color and rhetoric over race. The issues people care about are the same regardless of who they are.”
Atlanta’s new voters, she believes – black and white alike – should be welcomed because they will help fund the city’s initiatives by paying municipal taxes.
Borders may have gotten a jumpstart on the 2009 mayoral race, but she is by no means the only person laying the groundwork for a mayoral campaign. State Senator Kasim Reed, Atlanta City Councilman Caesar Mitchell, Fulton County Councilman Robb Pitts and community activist Rod Mack are all eyeing the city’s top job.
Reed, a Democrat who represents unincorporated South Fulton County and Douglas County, is often mentioned as a natural successor to Mayor Franklin. One of the youngest members of the Georgia General Assembly, Reed worked his way through the state House and now the Senate. He also managed Franklin’s successful 2001 and 2005 campaigns.
Reed has formed a mayoral exploratory committee and is conducting a listening tour through the city’s council districts to speak with voters. He says he is not worried about others formalizing their bids before he does.
“We are right where we need to be in terms of building an organization and getting support,” he maintains. “One thing you should never do is let others determine your campaign strategy for you. You run your own campaign. I am not worried about what any of the other candidates – announced or unannounced – are doing. This race is going to ultimately be decided on what I do, not what others do.”
The demographics shifts in the city do not hinder him either. In fact, talk of a sea change in Atlanta politics based solely on race is, argues Reed, misguided. “The future of mayoral politics in Atlanta, and soon in the state, is going to be candidate- and merit-driven,” he contends. “A white person or a black person could win the mayor’s race if they are qualified. We are past the time when a candidate can win solely because they are black, and we are also past the time when a candidate can win solely because they are white.”
Candidate-centric elections could even transcend political parties, predicts Reed, who adds, “it’s not going to be about the Democrat or the Republican, but about the person.”
For the statesman, such a playing field is right up his alley. “I’m comfortable in that space. I feel that races determined on merit are healthy for the city. Our diversity is something we should embrace.”
Atlanta councilman Mitchell agrees with Reed that the racial demographic shift has been overly scrutinized. He also argues that other demographic shifts may be more important in the coming election.
“Beyond race, we’ve seen shifts in age, wealthy, sexual orientation and political affiliation,” Mitchell says. “Any candidate looking to get in this race has to be mindful of those [factors].”
Particularly important is Atlanta’s partisan composition. He says one of Georgia’s few remaining Democratic bastions may be becoming more moderate, which would likely affect the tone of the campaign.
“I wouldn’t say Atlanta is more Republican, but it may be less Democratic,” he says. “There are a whole lot of independents, which becomes a factor in a non-partisan race because party identification becomes less of a factor.
Mitchell, himself a Democrat, holds one of the city council’s citywide at-large seats and also served as intern council president before Borders was elected.
Like Reed, Mitchell too says he is not worried about losing ground to early -announced candidates. “In mayoral politics, there are basic things that cannot happen until a certain time because the electorate is not going to focus on the race until a certain time,” he explains. “Most voters will make their decision in late 2009 and most voters will be touched in early 2009. Right now it’s about resources.”
The next mayor will be charged with continuing the successes of the Franklin administration and the current city council in tackling the city’s big problems: infrastructure, transportation and crime.
“We’ve been able to turn around the city and now the opportunity is there for the next mayor to really take off. There are things we can do to take this toward being a world-class city,” Mitchell contends
He predicts that the next mayor is going to have to focus to the little things in city government too.
“We’re going to have to pay very close attention to the delivery of services to citizens…that is the fundamental purpose of city government and the fundamental expectation of the people.”
Voters will not be the only ones with high expectations for candidates like Borders, Mitchell and Reed. Fulton County Comissioner Pitts, himself a 2001 mayoral candidate, says he is keeping an eye on the pool, as well, assuring that he will take the quality of rest of the field in account when he decides whether or not he should make another run for City Hall.
“If I feel there is someone who shares my vision and has the leadership qualities and skills that I do, that could have some bearing [on a decision about entering the race],” he reveals. “Either way, I’ll be making a thoughtful decision, because [running] is a huge sacrifice.”
Pitts, a Democrat who holds one of the Fulton County Commission’s countywide at-large seats, garnered 33 percent of the vote in his 2001 race against Franklin and several other candidates, but he was unable to force a one-on-one run-off election. He was elected to the commission a year after losing that mayoral race and re-elected in 2006. He is also a former Atlanta City Council president, having been elected to that post in 1997.
While Pitts is looking at the race, he is nowhere close to deciding one way or another. He adds, however, that he is being encouraged to take another shot at the mayoralty by friends and supporters.
“I haven’t made a final decision, but I’m asked about it daily increasingly from all quadrants,” he says. “In the end (though), it will be my decision.”
Pitts professes to be unfazed by the changing Atlanta electorate, and instead, contends new voters to the city will be much like those who already cast ballots in Atlanta, whether they look like them or not.
“I think those who have chosen to live in Atlanta are interested in the city, the needs of the city and what I would bring to the city rather than in anything else,” he says. “The overwhelming majority of people are going to be interested in the best person for the position.”
Should they decide to mount a municipal run, State Senator Reed, Atlanta councilman Mitchell and Fulton commissioner Pitts will join Atlanta council president Borders in enjoying considerable public visibility inherent to the elected positions they already hold.
Entrepreneur Rod Mack, however, will not. Mack, a self-described political activist, has owned and operated Rod Air Courier, a shipping logistics company, for 20 years. He has sought office before, running for a seat on the Fayette County Commission in 2005, but has never been elected. Having already declared his intention to seek the office, Mack will have to compete for voters’ attention with names they have seen for several years now. But the upstart does not believe that the visibility gap will make him an underdog.
In fact, Mack feels his business background may give him an advantage over the government veterans
“At this point, with [metropolitan Atlanta] with this big deficit, there has to be changes. The city has to be ran like a business. I’ve managed people [and] have been responsible for quite of bit of funds with my company.”
Like his potential opponents, Mack says he is not worried about the affect new voters in the city could have on the 2009 race. He believes migration to the city is not more common for any particular race. Instead, he argues, it is common sense for every race.
“The transition from suburbanite to the city is one that both minorities and non-minorities share,” he says. “They both gave up the huge operating expenses [such as] expensive immaculate lawns, commuter fuel costs to and from the city approaching $4 per gallon, Georgia 400 toll costs, outrageous property taxes, no four star hotels, no upscale dining, no world class entertainment and no sports or media conglomerates.”
In Mack’s view, people who are drawn to those urban qualities will share the concerns of long-time urban voters.
“Minorities and non-minorities will appreciate a Mayor who will share their vision for a greener, cleaner, safer city, affordable housing and non-polluting jobs,” he says.
Of course, time will tell how true that is. But luckily for Borders, Reed, Mitchell, Pitts, Mack and any other would-be Atlanta mayors, they have until November 2009 to make that case.
